From EconTalk.org (Includes full transcript).
Direct link to mp3 interview
Nassim Taleb talks about the financial crisis, how we misunderstand rare events, the fragility of the banking system, the moral hazard of government bailouts, the unprecedented nature of really, really bad events, the contribution of human psychology to misinterpreting probability and the dangers of hubris. The conversation closes with a discussion of religion and probability.
Alicia Morgan is a musician friend with whom I've occasionally had the pleasure of working over the last decade or two. Her blog turned into a book, The Price of Right: How the Conservative Agenda Has Failed America (and Always Will). I've just read it and highly recommend it-that is-if you're in good health and not worried about getting riled up. I come away from it "mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more", and (after all the business-as-usual cabinet choices) Obama or no, there's just too much wrong with America to sit on the sidelines and wait for something to happen.
Alicia lays the groundwork with some psychology of types- Farmers vs. Hunters. From there we learn how Marketing Speak has become a major tool in the arsenal of the Conservative agenda. She goes on to trace the evolution of the wealthy, powerful and organized Conservative Right since Newt Gingrich. She documents the co-joining of the Conservative Right with the Christian Right. Following that she applies her insight to the issues of Iraq, the erosion of the Middle Class, Health Care, Worker's Rights, and Corporate Media. Alicia tells her story with names and dates and quotes-who said what when-then adds her perspective, which for me is so compelling. A few examples, first, of the evidence she's discovered.
Language: A Key Mechanism of Control
…"I wish I could speak like Newt."
That takes years of practice. But, we believe that you could have a significant impact on your campaign and the way you communicate if we help a little. that is why we have created this list of words and phrases…(From a pamphlet sent out by Newt Gingrich's politcal action committee to Republicans across the country.)
The "cruel and unusual punishment" clause of the 8th Amendment to the Constitution has been interpreted by the Supreme Court to require prisoners, as part of their humane treatment during detention, to be guaranteed the right to health care.
Currently prisoners are the only group who are specifically granted the right to health care. It is probable that the founders of our country, if they could have predicted the importance of health care, would have granted that the same standard of humane treatment be extended to every citizen. (Dr. Howard Haft, Executive VP and Chief Medical Officer at Conmed Healthcare Management, Inc., a provider of health care services for correctional institutions.)
In the 1980s, the Reagan administration, during its foaming frenzy of deregulation, raised the number of stations a company could own from seven to twelve. In 1983, most major media was controlled by fifty companies. It then went to twenty-six in 1987 to twenty-three in 1990, to ten in 1966, accelerated by the Telecommunications Act of 1996 signed by Bill Clinton. Today almost all of the major media outlets in the U.S. are owned by five corporations.
And here's an example of how Alicia turns these facts into hard-hitting truths.
It's important to realize that the corporate media is granted (for free!) leases for their slice of the broadcast spectrum. This amounts to a gift from us-the American taxpayer-of billions and billions of dollars. In other words, we are paying the big corporations to be lied to, manipulated, and stolen from.
Hey Alicia! The last few years I've been hiding under a political rock. Your heartfelt perspective on our current situation has rekindled my desire to get back into the fray. Thanks for a great book.
Related… I can recommend a couple of excellent podcasts. Especially the interviews with established and emerging psychedelic researchers. There seems to be a a lot of energy coming back into the psychedelic research area, most of it falling well below the radar. Podcasts are turning out to be an excellent way for me to build a knowledge base of alternative information. Search the iTunes store for whatever you're interested in. Undoubtedly some Podcasts will show up. Click the See All. Subscribe to a few or download an episode to see if they're what you're looking for.
According to Saul's calculations, in order to reach a goal of 450 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide in time to limit a global rise in temperature to 2 degrees C., we'll have to reduce the amount of burned fossil fuels to 3 terawatts (of power). That means we'll need to replace 11.5 terawatts with new clean sources.
That would mean the following. (Here I'm drawing on notes and extrapolations I've written up previously from discussion with Griffith):
"Two terawatts of photovoltaic would require installing 100 square meters of 15-percent-efficient solar cells every second, second after second, for the next 25 years. (That's about 1,200 square miles of solar cells a year, times 25 equals 30,000 square miles of photovoltaic cells.) Two terawatts of solar thermal? If it's 30 percent efficient all told, we'll need 50 square meters of highly reflective mirrors every second. (Some 600 square miles a year, times 25.) Half a terawatt of biofuels? Something like one Olympic swimming pools of genetically engineered algae, installed every second. (About 15,250 square miles a year, times 25.) Two terawatts of wind? That's a 300-foot-diameter wind turbine every 5 minutes. (Install 105,000 turbines a year in good wind locations, times 25.) Two terawatts of geothermal? Build 3 100-megawatt steam turbines every day-1,095 a year, times 25. Three terawatts of new nuclear? That's a 3-reactor, 3-gigawatt plant every week-52 a year, times 25."
All of it! Please listen to Saul's Long Now Lecture to hear how, despite the odds, he remains an optimist.
Calculate and compare your own power consumption at WattzOn.com.
Check out the very cool 100 mpg, charge-overnight-from-a-wall-socket, ready-for-the-carpool-lane, 3-wheeled (California only) Aptera.
(As mentioned in Saul's talk.)
A thread over at the neXtPrize blog got me thinking about Early Warning systems–how mobile technologies like SMS can allow Twitter-like real-time monitoring of data for the purpose of discovering emerging disasters. Pragzz pointed me to a couple of non-profs that are already supporting this. Ushahadi (Swahili for 'testimony') is an Open Source platform that anyone can use to set up and manage monitoring campaigns.
The core engine is built on the premise that gathering crisis information from the general public provides new insights into events happening in near real-time. It is being developed by a group of volunteer developers and designers, hailing primarily from Africa.
MobileActive.org is a community of people and organizations using mobile phones for social impact.
We are committed to increasing the effectiveness of NGOs around the world who recognize that the 3.5 billion mobile phones provide unprecedented opportunities for organizing, communications, and service and information delivery.
Their site also features a directory of NGOs who are using mobile phones to make a social impact.
Researching this reminded me of a Ted talk I'd heard by Larry Brilliant on the occasion of his winning a 2006 Ted Wish prize. Larry's wish was to build a better early warning system for monitoring the outbreak of dangerous disease. Larry knows of what he speaks- he led the WHO team that eradicated Smallpox. He also was a founding member of the Seva Foundation which has restored sight to hundreds of thousands. Based on the work previously done by GPHIN Larry launched InSTEDD which plans to amplify the data collection and monitoring capabilities of GPHIN a hundredfold. You can watch Larry's amazing Ted Talk and read a short history of the INSTEDD project here. Larry launched InSTEDD with the $100,000 Ted prize. It will be interesting to see what he can do with $1 billion as head of Google.org. Go Larry!
On November 23, 1963 I was a grade two student. I sat in the desk in the front row next to my friend Bruce. I remember that it was very unusual that the Sister who taught us rolled a television set into the classroom. She seemed to be very upset. There was the sense of something being very wrong. She turned on the black and white television and explained to us that the President had been killed. Today is the 45th anniversary (do you call it an anniversary if it was a tragedy?) of the murder of JFK
The following is a re-post of an article from May of 2007.
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I'm not familiar with prisonplanet.com, but theytell the storyof a recording E. Howard Hunt made on his deathbed. The tape was recently made public by Howard Hunt's son, Saint John Hunt. On the tape Howard Hunt describes a bitter LBJ and his involvement with the murder of JFK. Hunt names others who were involved in the conspiracy. Five minutes of the tape were aired recently on CoastToCoastAM.com
There is a direct link to the mp3 file here.
What's been bugging me about it is, what if it's true? I mean – just for a minute – inhabit a world where the Kennedy assassination has been solved- We know who did it, who helped who and why.
Now what?
How is justice served over 40 years later? Who's going to pay?
What does it mean? What would change?
How do I heal, or why, or who cares?
Is it just miscellaneous information?
Dean Kamen, inventor and entrepreneur, has pieced together a hybrid that uses electric battery power for the drive train, and a Stirling engine for heat and defogging. In a pinch, the Stirling engine can also be used to recharge the battery. Read the whole story at UnionLeader.com (See Also: Dean Kamen's Deka Revolt Electric Car Runs on Any Fuel.
In 1999 I compiled a 'best of' collection of mostly political audio clips from my KPFK collection. I was reminded of this one from Louis Farrakhan when Obama won the Presidency last night.
It's great to see people taking the issues and statements the candidates have made seriously. Andrew Allemann of DomainNameWire.com took the time to track down the Obama and McCain policy statements and put together some hard questions for each of them.
The 2008 election for President of the United States has nothing to do with who's wearing a flagpin and lipstick on a pig, but that's what the media is focusing on. Sadly, that's what the campaigns seem to focus on too.
This web site is dedicated to asking the difficult questions of our candidates. They're specific. They can't be dodged. And they aren't based on heresay.
The basis for these questions are the candidates' own plans. Not rumors. I read through the plans on each site and had questions about many of the candidates' stances and how they specifically plan to accomplish them.
Some of these may be easy to answer, but they certainly aren't explained well on the candidates' web sites.
I'm an independent and undecided voter who likes some of what each candidate has to say. But I'm not getting the answers I need from the mainstream press.
this article was written by Jeremy Faludi in June 2007. We're republishing it here as part of our month-long editorial retrospective.
Google Transit was already the best thing that ever happened to online public transit trip planning, and now it's grown to a whole new level. Even better, it's starting to be incorporated into the default Google Maps and Google Earth. The new features and the integration into normal map queries will make public transit more accessible and easier for everyone to understand; and in doing so, it will certainly increase transit ridership and reduce driving.
One of the big barriers to public transit use is the knowledge required to use the system: where to wait, when to wait, where to transfer, how much to pay, etc. Some readers may remember that two years ago we helpedcause Google Transit to happen, but it's taken off far beyond what we had suggested, and they keep getting better. What's more, they're doing it at no charge to the transit agencies (a perpetually under-funded sector of local governments). More cities are coming on board, as well; if you live in one of the eleven cities now participating, enjoy! If you live elsewhere, consider writing to your local transit agency and telling them to join the 21st century. (ahem… San Francisco, right in Google's back yard, no excuse… ahem.)
What are these tools? In addition to being able to type in your route and get comprehensive directions (including walking to stations, showing the bus or train route, walking directions between stations, how much it costs, etc.), you can plan trips by departure or arrival time and see when the next couple buses come if you miss the one you're aiming for. Now, if you zoom in enough on any Google map in the right city, all the transit stops appear, with different icons for bus, light rail, etc.; click on a bus stop and up pops a list of the buses or trains that stop there; click on the bus number, and up pops the timetable for the next several buses stopping there.
Here's a summary of the new features, with screenshots, right from the horse's mouth–Thomas Sly, a business development manager on the project. (Note the screenshots are small for bandwidth reasons; for real-size ones, give it a spin yourself on the real site.)
This article was written by Micki Krimmel in June 2007. We're republishing it here as part of our month-long editorial retrospective.
I first learned about MAPLight.org at the recent NetSquared Conference. As I wrote last week, the conference attendees chose MAPLight as the winner of the first prize NetSquared Innovation Award. In a crowd of extremely well-deserving projects, MAPLight stood out as an organization applying the best of Web 2.0 technology and standards to create a vital tool for transparency in democracy.
MAPLight.org brings together campaign contributions and how legislators vote, providing an unprecedented window into the connections between money and politics. We currently cover the California Legislature and U.S. Congress.
Maplight has been receiving a fair amount of attention lately and the $25k prize will help them take their project to the next level, providing the funds for them to create customized widgets for bloggers and nonprofit organizations to share up to date information on their websites automatically. MAPLight is also working to expand their service to other states, with New York next on the list.
I chatted with Sean Tanner, Maplight's Research Manager via email to get a little more insight into Maplight's mission and future particularly as America turns its attention to the next Presidential election. As Research Manager, Sean coordinates the MAPLight.org database and research internship program. He is also the chair of the Young Advocates, a group of young professionals who support the work of Human Rights Watch.
Micki Krimmel: Can you tell me a little bit about the mission of MAPLight and its origins? Read the rest of the article.
One of my guiding theories of the modern media / advertising landscape is that the extensive real time surveillance of consumers by online advertisers and content providers encourages the growth of content about digital cameras (the content about which is easily monetized) at the expense of hard news, especially international news about developing countries like Nigeria.
The following google insightschart of digital camera v. Nigeria searches over time strikes a blow against that theory:
Read the rest of the post here
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From WorldChanging's Ethan Zuckerman
I'm wondering what other pockets of "undesirable" behavior are mappable via this technique. For instance, searches for "keygen", a popular site that offers serial numbers and software keys to enable pirated software shows a heavy concentration the former Warsaw Pact nations, with some strength in Southeast Asia as well.
Originally Posted on: July 17, 2008 10:11 AM, by Mo
In the January 4th, 1961 episode of One Step Beyond, director and presenter John Newland ingests psilocybin under laboratory conditions, to investigate whether or not the hallucinogenic mushroom can enhance his abilities of extra-sensory perception.
The programme was apparently inspired by a 1959 book called The Sacred Mushroom, by parapsychologist Andrija Puharich, who is known for taking the spoon-bending fraudster Uri Geller to the United States for investigation.
In the first part of the programme (embedded below), Newland, Puharich and others travel to Mexico to collect mushroom samples. They then return to Puharich's lab in Palo Alto, where Newland's ESP abilities are tested before and after ingestion of several mushroom stems.
The programme is of historical interest, as it was made some years before the widespread use of LSD led researchers to stop conducting psychedelic research. It therefore includes a brief mention of the potential therapeutic effects of psilocybin for psychiatric patients.
Parts 2 and 3 of the episode are also available on YouTube.
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"And then, oddly enough, the first sound we hear as the chemical in the mushroom takes effect is… laughter."
This video is a lot of fun and introduced me to Andrija Puharich, who wrote The Sacred Mushroom: Key to the Door of Eternity (1959). UCLA research psychologist Barbara Brown (who invented biofeedback), also makes the trip down to Mexico. But it is most fascinating to see the show's host, John Newland in an on-camera lab setting, have his extrasensory perception skills tested under the influence of mushrooms. Really makes me wonder where we might be now if science had continued to have access to these substances.
And then down the rabbit hole! I'm a big fan of a book called 'Myself and I'(1962) by Constance Newland, which is the pen-name of Thelma Moss, who was a parapsychology researcher at UCLA. 'Myself and I' tells the story of her LSD-assisted psychotherapy. She had specific symptoms she was trying to address, and years of traditional psychotherapy had gotten her nowhere. Under LSD she makes profound connections to long-lost childhood experiences which open the way to her cure. I learned a lot about my own mind from reading about her insights. I would highly recommend this book.
But I wonder if Thelma Moss ever met John Newland through Barbara Brown who was also at UCLA. I found one clip on the net that connects Moss and Brown… "In Prague I was warmly and hospitably received by Dr. Rejdak, who is perhaps the most active parapsychologist in Czechoslovakia. In the company of two other Ameri cans, Dr. Thelma Moss and Dr. Barbara Brown, we were shown films of recent experiments in the telepathic trans mission of taste impression on a hypnotic subject. I'm not sure why I'm even curious but somehow it's interesting. Another connection to this whole cast of characters is Uri Geller. As mentioned above, Andrija Puharich was responsible for bringing Uri Geller to the US for experiments. You can easily find Uri connections to Thelma Moss and Barbara Brown.
A free biography of Andrija Puharich by his ex wife H.G.M. Herman, found on Uri Geller's site offers up such gems as… In 1955 he had heard from a Mr. Wasson that a ritualistic mushroom cult had existed in Mexico for hundreds of years, and was still practiced in some remote parts of the country. (Mr. and Mrs. Gordon Wasson wrote a book entitled Mushrooms, Russia and History. It was published in 1957).Anxious to find out for himself, Andrija set out for the village of Juquila in the state of Oaxaca, 200 miles south of Mexico City in June of 1960. The original expedition was made up of nine people, including Paul Jones. When Paul returned after about four weeks saying that all members of the team had become ill, and that Andrija had been crazy to go on alone with an even crazier missionary, I became not only greatly concerned, but furious as well. How the hell did Andrija dare risk his life, being the father of four children and a fifth on the way? I hadn't even known that he was off to a dangerous remote place in Mexico. Besides, he had left me with barely enough money to buy food, and with unpaid bills. We no longer lived in Carmel Valley, but had moved to the chic part of Carmel, called Carmel Meadows. How Andrija had been able to buy the beautiful, spacious patio house, had been "none of my business." This from Chapter 6.
While browsing Uri Geller's site I noticed this in his sidebar: are your eyes attracted to 11.11? But we'll save that for another day.
George Lakoff is well known as a cognitive linguist who looks at how language affects culture, specifically how much the metaphors we use impact the way we think. During the last presidential election, he grabbed a lot of attention with his book Don't Think of an Elephant: Know Your Values and Frame the Debate, about how Republicans are masters at "framing" debates to their benefit. His new book, The Political Mind, explores the same territory but in the context of cognitive science. The New York Times reviewed The Political Mind yesterday and it sounds fascinating. From the NYT:
Lakoff blames "neoliberals" and their "Old Enlightenment" mentality for the Democratic Party's weakness. They think they can win elections by citing facts and offering programs that serve voters' interests. When they lose, they conclude that they need to move farther to the right, where the voters are.
This is all wrong, Lakoff explains. Neuroscience shows that pure facts are a myth and that self-interest is a conservative idea. In a "New Enlightenment," progressives will exploit these discoveries. They'll present frames instead of raw facts. They'll train the public to think less about self-interest and more about serving others. It's not the platform that needs to be changed. It's the voters.
The basis of Lakoff's theory is simple: the mind is the brain. Any connection that forms between your thoughts also forms between your neurons. As you internalize a metaphor, a circuit in your brain "physically constitutes the metaphor." This parallel development continues as mental complexity increases. "Narratives are brain structures," he proposes.
Link to NYT review, Link to buy The Political Mind: Why You Can't Understand 21st-Century American Politics with an 18th-Century Brain
Previously on BoingBoing:
"¢ George Lakoff on how to argue with conservatives Link
"¢ George Lakoff on why the conservatives seem to be winning Link
I first learned about 
