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Tag Archives: narrative fallacy

Daniel Kahneman - A Bat and a Ball Cost $1.10

Saturday, May 3, 2008

… the bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Daniel Kahneman KNOWS that the first thought that entered your head was $.10–even if you’re a Computer Science major at MIT. But that’s the wrong answer.
Daniel Gilbert’s “Stumbling On Happiness” led me to Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled By Randomness“. Both [...]

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be

Sunday, April 13, 2008

If you want to be a dentist, it’s rational to assume that if you go to school, get your degree, and set up a dental practice, you will be able to attain a comfortable standard of living. You may be able to project your probable income range with some degree of accuracy.
But if you want [...]

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